Why Some Europeans Are More Willing to Fight for Their Country
As we seem to edge closer to Russian violence against the EU, the question must be asked about how ready the EU is for that war. A quite good source for understanding this is the World Values Survey which asks respondents about their willingness, or unwillingness, to fight for their country.
The data from the 2022 World Values Survey highlights a fascinating trend: people across the EU have vastly different attitudes when it comes to defending their country. Some nations show an overwhelming willingness to take up arms, while others are far more hesitant. What’s driving these differences? A closer look at the data reveals that factors like geography, history, and national identity all play a role-and Sweden, surprisingly (or perhaps not?), tops the list.
Figure 1: World Value Survey 2022 — YES, willingness to fight
Geography and the Perception of Threat
Let’s start with geography. Countries that are geographically close to perceived adversaries, especially Russia, tend (but not perfectly so) to show a stronger willingness to fight. Finland, Poland, and Estonia are prime examples. These nations have a long history of dealing with Russian aggression, and for them, the threat feels immediate. Finland, which borders Russia and has suffered from that proximity, including fighting a bloody war with the Soviet Union during the Winter War, has 80.3% of its citizens ready to defend the country. Poland and Estonia, both on NATO’s eastern flank, show similarly high percentages.
On the other end of the spectrum, countries like Spain (37.7%) and Portugal (45.1%) are geographically and historically distant from any enemy to wit Russia. For them, the threat of war feels more abstract. The farther west you go in Europe, the less inclined people seem to be to view military defence as a personal responsibility. This geographic divide shows how much a nation’s sense of security is tied to its proximity to historical adversaries.
Why Sweden Tops the Chart
Sweden stands out with the highest willingness to fight, at 83.8%. This might seem surprising-after all, Finland’s proximity to Russia and its wartime history might suggest it should rank higher. Likewise, you might expect the ex-Soviet Baltics to maybe be the highest. So, what’s going on?
Sweden’s neutrality over the past 200 years hasn’t been about ignoring defence altogether. In fact, Sweden has always maintained a strong military to deter potential threats. Its decision to reintroduce conscription in 2017 reinforced a national culture of preparedness. That message clearly resonated with the public, boosting the sense that defending the nation is a shared duty. Today we see that Sweden national service is bursting at the seams; thousands being turned away for lack of capacity to train them.
Sweden’s geography also matters. While it doesn’t share a land border with Russia, its location near the Baltic Sea and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad places it in a strategically sensitive area. Recent Russian military activity in the region has kept Swedes acutely aware of the need for strong defences.
Beyond that, Sweden has a “total defence” doctrine, which involves everyone-military and civilians alike-in the country’s preparedness. This approach builds a collective sense of responsibility — couched in deeply-held “we will never surrender” terms — and fosters trust in the country’s ability to defend itself. Combine these factors, and it’s clear why Sweden leads the pack in the EU as to willingness to fight.
Military Traditions and Political Systems
A country’s defence policies also shape its citizens’ attitudes. In places like Greece (81.0%) and Finland, mandatory military service creates a shared sense of responsibility. These countries embed the idea of national defence into their culture, making it a natural part of civic life. The ability to fight probably is a good indicator of the willingness to do so in defence of the country.
Germany, on the other hand, offers an interesting contrast. At 52.5%, its willingness to fight is much lower. This is likely tied to its post-World War II identity, which has prioritised pacifism and diplomacy. While Germany has increased its contributions to NATO in recent years, its public remains cautious about military involvement.
Figure 2: Source Data from World Values Survey 2022
The Role of Demographics and Identity
Age demographics play a role too. Younger populations often have more energy and optimism about taking on national defence responsibilities. Countries like Poland and Estonia, with relatively young populations, show high percentages of willingness.
Cultural identity is another key factor. Nations with a strong history of resilience and independence-like Greece and Poland-tend to foster a deep sense of pride and readiness to protect their sovereignty. By contrast, countries like Austria and the Netherlands, where national identity is more tied to neutrality or trade, exhibit lower willingness.
The differences in willingness to fight among the three Baltic states — Estonia (71.3%), Latvia (61.7%), and Lithuania (43.4%) — may be attributed to variations in historical experience, demographic composition, and defence policies. Estonia’s relatively high percentage reflects its strong national identity and consistent investment in defence, including extensive participation in NATO initiatives. Latvia, though slightly lower, shares similar security concerns but has a more diverse population, including a significant Russian-speaking minority, which may influence perceptions of national defence. Lithuania’s notably lower percentage is surprising to me given its geographic proximity to Kaliningrad and historical experiences with Soviet occupation. This discrepancy may stem from demographic trends, such as emigration of younger, defence-oriented citizens, and differing levels of public trust in government institutions. Together, these factors demonstrate how even nations facing similar external threats can exhibit varied levels of readiness due to internal dynamics.
Figure 3: World Values Survey 2022 — NO, unwillingness to fight
Economic Confidence and Public Priorities
Economic stability can also influence willingness to fight. Wealthier nations like Sweden and Finland report higher levels of willingness, which could reflect confidence in their state’s ability to support and sustain a credible defence. When people trust that their government has the resources to protect them, they’re more likely to feel personally invested in the country’s defence.
Meanwhile, in less economically secure countries like Portugal, other priorities might take centre stage. Citizens may feel that domestic concerns, such as healthcare or education, are more pressing than the abstract notion of defending national borders, especially when those borders are not directly threatened.
What This Means for Europe’s Defence
The differences in willingness to fight across the EU highlight a challenge for European and NATO defence strategies. Frontline states like Finland and Poland are ready to step up, but others, particularly in western Europe, may need stronger motivation to invest in collective security. This divergence could complicate efforts to build a unified European defence strategy.
Leaders need to engage with their citizens, explaining why a united defence is crucial even for countries that don’t feel an immediate threat. Joint military exercises, clearer communication about regional risks, and equitable contributions to NATO can help bridge these gaps. By reinforcing the shared stakes, European nations can strengthen solidarity and improve readiness to face future challenges.
The willingness to fight isn’t just about geography or history — it reflects a complex mix of cultural, economic, and political influences. Sweden’s high numbers, for instance, show that national defence attitudes can be shaped by strategic foresight and public trust. Understanding these patterns can help policymakers create a more balanced and effective European defence strategy, ensuring that all member states feel equally prepared to face modern security threats.
One thing these data tell me is that we, as a collective, are in some trouble if/when Russia attacks. The load will be far from borne evenly across the Union. A people’s willingness to defend their country isn’t just a military issue — it’s a function of readiness, trust, resilience, and a shared sense of purpose in an uncertain world.
