Trains Stalling Putin’s Heart

Why Russia’s rail collapse means death

If you want to take the pulse of an economy, you cannot look further than rail. Tanks and artillery pieces destroyed are the tactical indicators of war-fighting. Where we understand best if wars are winning or losing is not at the tactical but the strategic. And one of the best indicators of socio-economic health is trains. And we must watch these indicators like glue if we are to understand where Russia is going. Because, metaphorically, where rail goes, so goes Putin.

Let’s now take in some numbers.

Russia’s freight volumes fell 6.8 percent from January to April 2025, worsening the 4.1 percent annual decline seen in 2024 (Reuters, 2025; Index1520, 2025). If one gauges an empire by the cadence of its locomotives, Russia’s heartbeat is now barely a tremor. Where’s that pulse?

Coal transport for export fell 6.4 percent in January–April 2025, as port-loading plans outstripped rail capacity (Center for Countering Disinformation, 2025). Ferrous metals shipments dropped 23.3 percent in the same period (Center for Countering Disinformation, 2025). And construction materials volumes tumbled 21.3 percent January–April 2025 (Center for Countering Disinformation, 2025).