The Pendulum Paradox: How China’s Hard Grip Strengthens Taiwan’s Soft Touch

Inspired by the session on soft power in the 2024 Taiwan-Nordic Forum last week in Stockholm (kudos Panellists Professor Jorgen Delman, Professor Hsiao Huichen, and Moderator, Professor Torbjörn Loden), this article outlines the concept of soft power in the context of Taiwan. In international relations, soft power — a term coined by Joseph Nye in the late 1980s — has emerged as a crucial strategy for states seeking to influence others without the use of coercive force. Unlike hard power, which relies on military and economic means to achieve state objectives, soft power harnesses the appeal of culture, political values, and foreign policies to shape the preferences of others (Nye, 2004). This distinction is particularly relevant for Taiwan, a nation where the application of hard power in any traditional sense is constrained by geopolitical realities, including significant military and economic pressures from China. As such, this article explores the strategic use of soft power by Taiwan, focusing on its cultural, technological, and humanitarian dimensions to enhance its global standing and diplomatic reach.

Understanding Taiwan’s Unique Position

It’s quite clear that Taiwan’s geopolitical predicament is unique. Officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), it is recognised by only a handful of nations due to both the One China Policy promoted by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and the different and even more constraining One China Principle (yes, they are different, and in very important ways, so maybe that distinction will be another article if there is demand for it). Despite this, Taiwan has carved out a space for itself as a beacon of democracy in Asia, noted for its robust economic performance and vibrant democracy. These elements are foundational to Taiwan’s potential soft power (Tsai, 2017).

Taiwan is strategically important in the global economic system, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, where it holds >50% of the global market share. However, its international political situation is precarious, under constant and increasing threat of diplomatic isolation and military intimidation by the hegemonic China. This unique juxtaposition of economic strength and political vulnerability places Taiwan in a position where leveraging soft power not only becomes a choice but a necessity for international survival and influence (Wang, 2019).

The exercise of soft power by Taiwan is not a choice, but a necessity

Paths to Soft Power

Enhancing Taiwan’s soft power can indirectly contribute to its security by fostering a broader international willingness to support and protect it. When Taiwan invests in soft power — for example through cultural exports, economic partnerships, and educational exchanges — it not only shares its values and successes but also engenders goodwill and deepens international relationships. This network of positive perceptions and mutual benefits can lead to more robust international support in times of crisis (Nye, 2004). Countries that benefit culturally, economically, or educationally from Taiwan feel a greater sense of obligation or willingness to advocate for Taiwan’s interests on the global stage. Furthermore, as Taiwan’s soft power grows, its global image as a vital contributor to the international community becomes more prominent, potentially rallying international opinion and support to safeguard its status against future threats (Wang, 2019).

So, somewhat paradoxically, China and Taiwan are engaged in some form of bizarre waltz; moving around in each other’s orbit but with the more aggressively China curtails Taiwan’s soft power efforts and flexes its hard power superiority, the weaker China’s soft power becomes. As a result, others are more strongly drawn to better relations with Taiwan, which is of course itself a soft power victory for Taiwan. We might think of this as a Pendulum Paradox: China’s hard power is the force propelling the pendulum. But the greater the force applied, the more extreme the counter-swing becomes. Each exertion on China’s part drives the pendulum further in the opposite direction, boosting Taiwan’s own influence with a force proportionate to China’s actions.

Taiwan emerges as a positive counterweight to an increasingly self-alienating China

And the Taiwanese win from the Pendulum Paradox is in large part because Taiwan would be stepping into a void left by China’s own self-inflicted wounding of its own soft power. In times of a more aggressive China, both in hard and soft power terms, those not gravitating more to Taiwan than China are simply the cowed. So, by strategically cultivating its soft power, Taiwan not only enhances its global influence but also potentially secures an informal network of international support that could prove crucial in maintaining its sovereignty and security.

Cultural Diplomacy

Taiwan’s cultural diplomacy is a potent tool for soft power. The island’s rich tapestry of traditional Chinese culture, indigenous heritage, and a modern democratic ethos presents a unique cultural identity that can captivate global audiences. For instance, Taiwan’s film industry, with internationally acclaimed directors like Ang Lee, has put Taiwanese culture on the global map. Additionally, events such as the Taipei Arts Festival and the Lantern Festival attract thousands of international visitors each year, providing a platform for cultural exchange and enhancing Taiwan’s image as a culturally rich and diverse society (Chen, 2021).

Technology and Innovation

In the sphere of technology and innovation, Taiwan is a global leader, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing. Companies like TSMC are at the forefront of technological advancements and are integral to the supply chains of major international tech firms. This dominance in a critical sector not only underscores Taiwan’s economic influence but also serves as a vehicle for projecting soft power by embodying the values of innovation, reliability, and advancement. Moreover, Taiwan’s commitment to green technology and sustainable practices presents additional soft power opportunities by aligning with global priorities around environmental conservation and climate change mitigation (Huang & Wu, 2020).

Humanitarian Assistance

Taiwan has also made significant contributions to global humanitarian efforts, despite its exclusion from many international organisations, including the United Nations. For example, following the 2010 Haiti earthquake, Taiwan was among the first to dispatch rescue teams and has since been involved in various disaster relief operations across the globe. These actions not only demonstrate Taiwan’s commitment to global welfare but also help build a positive international image that transcends political constraints (Lee, 2018).

Educational Exchanges

Educational exchanges offer another avenue for Taiwan to exert its soft power. Programmes like the Taiwan Scholarship encourage international students to study at Taiwanese universities, facilitating cultural and intellectual exchange. These students often return to their home countries with a deeper understanding of Taiwan and a personal connection to the island, effectively serving as informal ambassadors of Taiwanese culture and values (Wu, 2022).

Case Studies of Successful Soft Power Use

To understand how Taiwan might effectively leverage soft power, it is instructive to look at other nations that have successfully used soft power to enhance their global influence. Japan and South Korea, for example, have significantly impacted international audiences through cultural exports like anime, manga, film, music, and cuisine.

· Japan: Japan’s soft power has been driven largely through its pop culture including anime, manga, and video games which have a massive global following. Iconic brands and characters like Nintendo, Pokémon, and Studio Ghibli films have entrenched Japanese culture in the daily lives of people worldwide, enhancing its cultural and economic influence (McGray, 2002).

· South Korea: Similarly, South Korea’s “Korean Wave” (Hallyu), which encompasses K-pop, television dramas, and movies, has dramatically enhanced its international image. The global popularity of groups like BTS and movies like Parasite have brought South Korean culture into global mainstream consciousness, thereby boosting its soft power (Kim, 2018).

· India: India has projected its soft power through its vibrant cinema industry, Bollywood, which is one of the largest centres of film production in the world. Bollywood movies, characterised by their elaborate dance sequences and dramatic storylines, have gained immense popularity across Asia, the Middle East, and even parts of Africa and Europe. This cultural export has facilitated a deeper cultural exchange and fostered a positive image of India globally (Joshi, 2019).

· France: France wields significant soft power through its culinary heritage, fashion, and art. French cuisine is celebrated worldwide, with its practices even being recognised by UNESCO’s list of the world’s intangible cultural heritage. Paris, as a fashion capital, also shapes global fashion trends. Moreover, France’s historical contributions to art and philosophy engage intellectual circles globally, further enhancing its soft influence (Martin, 2015).

· United Kingdom: The UK’s soft power has been significantly bolstered by its contributions to music and literature. The global influence of British bands like The Beatles and The Rolling Stones, and authors such as J.K. Rowling, whose Harry Potter series has been translated into innumerable languages, has profoundly shaped cultural landscapes worldwide. Additionally, the English Premier League enjoys a massive global following, promoting British culture through sports (Smith, 2017). Let’s not, however, talk about English rugby or cricket.

· Canada: Canada has effectively used its reputation for high educational standards and policies of multiculturalism as tools of soft power. Its universities attract international students from all over the world, who often become informal ambassadors of Canadian values. Furthermore, Canada’s commitment to human rights, environmental stewardship, and global peacekeeping initiatives has enhanced its image as a progressive and welcoming nation (Adams, 2020).

These examples illustrate how cultural products can transcend national borders and become significant sources of soft power by shaping foreign perceptions and creating favourable associations with a country. Taiwan can glean insights from these models to boost its own soft power by promoting its unique cultural and technological offerings on an international scale.

Challenges and Limitations

Despite the potential benefits of the Pendulum Paradox, Taiwan faces several challenges and limitations. The most significant of these is China’s aggressive diplomatic stance, which actively seeks to limit Taiwan’s participation in international organisations and events, even where human lives (not just Taiwan’s but everyone else’s) are in the balance such as epidemics. This not only hinders Taiwan’s ability to engage with the global community but also impacts its ability to project soft power independently (Hickey, 2019).

Additionally, Taiwan’s international recognition is limited; few countries officially recognise Taiwan due to their diplomatic ties with China. This complicates foreign relations and reduces the channels through which Taiwan can exercise soft power. China’s disingenuous switch from the One China Policy to Principle, a seemingly small but extreme passive-aggressive move, underlines this constant constraining diplomatic force. Moreover, there is an internal debate within Taiwan about the extent to which it should assert its distinctiveness from China, which could influence the direction and nature of its soft power initiatives (Tsang, 2020). Arguably, Xi Jinping’s goals in his increasingly aggressive stance on Taiwan is not invasion but using its hollow threat of it to “change the language” in Taiwan, make Taiwanese adopt a more centrist position on the status quo. It is entirely plausible, in fact, he uses hard power to simply make Taiwan less independentist. Of course, that is yet another article for another day.

Strategic Recommendations

Given the outlined challenges, Taiwan needs a nuanced strategy to optimise its soft power, and really take advantage of the Pendulum Paradox. The following strategic recommendations are proposed:

Enhance Cultural Export Mechanisms: Taiwan possesses a vibrant cultural scene that is ripe for global exposure. To capitalise on this, Taiwan should significantly ramp up its investment in cultural industries with broad international appeal. This entails not only subsidising film productions, music, and literature that convey unique Taiwanese perspectives but also organising international marketing campaigns that highlight Taiwan’s cultural diversity and innovation. Film festivals, music tours, and book fairs could serve as platforms for showcasing Taiwan’s cultural products on the global stage. (At last week’s Taiwan-Nordic Forum in Stockholm I asked the question; “Where is T-Pop?”, not to mention Din Tai Fung. A fair question and an opportunity at the same time.)

Moreover, the digital space offers unprecedented opportunities to reach worldwide audiences. By partnering with global streaming services, Taiwan can promote its movies and TV shows to a broader audience, thus bypassing traditional media channels that might be blocked due to political reasons. For instance, the success of South Korean pop culture, facilitated through platforms like Netflix, illustrates the potential of digital strategies in cultural dissemination (Jin & Yoon, 2016). Taiwan could emulate this model by creating engaging content that resonates with international viewers, thereby enhancing its soft power.

These initiatives could be supported by the creation of a dedicated governmental agency that focuses on the international promotion of Taiwanese culture. This agency could ensure consistent funding, strategic planning, and the execution of international cultural promotion activities, which are critical for long-term success (Chiu, 2021).

Leverage Economic Strength for Diplomatic Gains: Taiwan’s status as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing and its pivotal role in global supply chains afford it considerable economic influence. This economic prowess can be strategically used to bolster Taiwan’s diplomatic objectives. By leveraging its economic strength, Taiwan can negotiate for meaningful participation in international forums and organisations, despite political barriers imposed by neighbouring countries.

In the context of soft power, economic ties can serve as a foundation for broader cultural and educational relationships. For example, Taiwan can integrate trade agreements with provisions for cultural exchanges and educational collaborations. This approach not only strengthens economic ties but also enhances cultural and academic relations, fostering a deeper understanding and appreciation of Taiwan globally.

The government could also facilitate business diplomacy by encouraging Taiwanese companies to expand overseas, engage in corporate social responsibility projects, and participate in international expos and trade shows. There cannot be any doubt at all that the high global profile of the likes of NVIDIA and TSMC are marketable “Made in Taiwan” assets that, for the moment, to me at least, seem under-used. Such — maybe we can use the title “Corporate Ambassador” activities — not only enhance Taiwan’s economic profile but also improve its cultural visibility and educational outreach, reinforcing its soft power (Lin, 2019).

Build on International Education Programs: Taiwan’s educational system is renowned for its high standards and innovation. Building on this strength, expanding international educational exchanges and scholarship programs can play a crucial role in projecting Taiwan’s soft power. By attracting more international students, Taiwan not only benefits economically but also culturally, as these students often become informal ambassadors for Taiwanese culture and values in their home countries.

The government should consider increasing funding for scholarships that target students from diverse geographical locations. This could be complemented by partnerships between Taiwanese universities and institutions abroad to facilitate student and faculty exchanges, joint research projects, and cultural exchange programs. Such initiatives will deepen international students’ engagement with Taiwan, creating lasting impressions and relationships. I would argue to approach it from clustering, not spreading too thinly. A critical mass of students in a smaller number of locations is going to be long-term more beneficial as they can work together rather than be lone influences in disparate locations.

Moreover, alumni networks should be nurtured to maintain connections with graduates after they return home, potentially facilitating further cultural and educational exchanges. These networks could organise events and provide platforms for continued engagement with Taiwanese culture and business opportunities, thus extending Taiwan’s influence globally.

Time to wrap this up. The unique situation Taiwan finds itself in dictates its soft power focus. As China tightens its grip, aggressively demonstrating hard power to assert its dominance, the pendulum inevitably swings the other way. China’s actions directly fuel Taiwan’s rising influence as a beacon of democracy and technological innovation in the region. Taiwan’s soft power allure increases proportionally to China’s heavy-handed tactics. It’s a paradox with far-reaching consequences.

Taiwan’s path forward lies in strategically maximising the momentum of the Pendulum Paradox. Building on its success stories in cultural diplomacy, technological prowess, humanitarian aid, and educational exchange offers a potent formula for wielding soft power effectively on the global stage. By nurturing its unique cultural identity, showcasing its technological might, and committing to global welfare, Taiwan naturally attracts allies and strengthens its international standing.

Of course, challenges remain. China’s active attempts to limit Taiwan’s international participation will undoubtedly present hurdles. However, the Pendulum Paradox suggests that China’s very efforts to isolate Taiwan may inadvertently accelerate its global rise. The harder the push, the greater the counter-swing. We strongly see this in Europe; the harder and more aggressively China pushes, the more weight swings behind Taiwan.

As other nations witness this dynamic, they become increasingly invested in preserving Taiwan’s autonomy and success. Taiwan siding loudly and clearly with other international relations underdogs, to wit Ukraine, cements this dynamic. This aligns with the strategic interests of international players seeking a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region, especially from those with democratic values. In this geopolitical game, every exertion of hard power by China ultimately boosts Taiwan’s soft power, creating a unique opportunity for Taiwan to amplify its influence despite political constraints.

The Pendulum Paradox highlights the crucial importance of soft power for Taiwan. By continuously refining its soft power approach, Taiwan not only enhances its global image but also builds a more secure and prosperous future for itself. Now the ball really is in Taiwan’s court to be able to take up the Pendulum’s opportunities presented and avoid its pitfalls.

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