The Microchip Bottleneck 2.0: Which Cars Are on the New Waitlist?

Chipmakers have you on hold: your midsize SUV just went from ‘in stock’ to ‘in the fullness of time.’

“We ordered our new midsize SUV in November 2023, dreaming of weekend road trips. When it finally arrived in April 2024, the dashboard was blank — no lane-keep assist, no digital gauges, nothing. The dealer told us, ‘We’ll retrofit those features when the chips arrive.’ Three months later, we’re still waiting.”

For countless car buyers, that story isn’t unique — it’s the latest chapter of “Auto-Chip Bottleneck 2.0.” Just when automakers promised the semiconductor drought would end by spring 2025 (you may or may not remember the infamous chip shortage of 2020; a covid story) mid-tier SUVs remain stuck on stretchers, missing critical features and leaving buyers frustrated. Below, I’ll outline exactly why the shortage lingers, how dealers are scrambling with “placeholders,” which brands suffer most, and — most importantly — strategies you can use to avoid getting stuck with a half-finished vehicle.

Quick caveat before jumping in, my analysis is conducted on the US market.

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Why the Chip Shortage Isn’t Going Away

Early in 2024, automotive executives and journalists alike declared the end of chip scarcity was near. Yet, a closer look at semiconductor-maker financials tells a different story — it’s still a 2025 thing:

• Texas Instruments (TI): (It’s tricky to work this one, since TI do NOT release data specific to their auto market revenues) In January 2025, TI guided Q1 revenue between $3.74 billion and $4.06 billion — implying a 6.7 percent year-over-year drop driven by weaker automotive orders. When Q1 2025 wrapped, TI reported 11 percent increase over Q1 2024, BUT that growth overwhelmingly came from industrial and consumer segments, not from carmakers (TI, 2025).
• NXP Semiconductors: Automotive revenue in Q4 2024 slipped 9 percent YoY, undercutting hopes for an early 2025 rebound (Fusion Worldwide, 2025).
• STMicroelectronics: Its Q4 2024 automotive and discrete-segment revenue plunged 22.4 percent (from $4.28 billion to $3.32 billion), highlighting how OEMs are still dialing back on mature-node chip purchases (STM, 2025).

Why does this matter? Most mid-tier SUVs rely on “mature-node” chips — 28 nm or 40 nm processes — for everything from power-management integrated circuits (PMICs) to radar sensors. TI, NXP, and STMicro have all deferred new 28 nm/40 nm fab expansions until 2027, meaning the wafers (hip term for semiconductors) your RAV4 Prime or Bronco Sport needs won’t be more plentiful any time soon.

The Placeholder Phenomenon: What You’re Really Getting

To cope, automakers and dealers are resorting to “placeholders.” That means:

• Blank Dashboards: Instead of a full digital cluster, your UnivBlue-painted crossover might look like a vintage G-series van — just empty space behind the steering wheel.
• Disabled Cameras and Sensors: Lane-keep assist, blind-spot monitoring, and forward-collision warnings are “sold” only on paper. Your Bronco Sport Badlands X might carry a sticker indicating “ADAS suite,” but the actual radar module sits in a warehouse.
• Option Sheet Surprises: A trim level that once included lane-departure warning as standard now tacks on $2,000 for a post-delivery retrofit. If you don’t explicitly choose those options, you’ll drive off without them — and pay later to enable them.

Consider the RAV4 Prime PHEV XSE Premium: advertised in late 2024 as “in stock,” yet dealers now say it carries a two-month wait just for lane-keep cameras (CarEdge, 2025). In baseline Subaru Forester and Outback builds, custom orders are sitting at two to three months (S&P Global Mobility, 2025). Dealership reps promise a “full ADAS retrofit” once that 28 nm camera SoC arrives — sometimes long after you’ve driven your car home.

Spotlight on Real-World Delays

This chart compares reported wait times (in days) for various hybrid and electric vehicle models based on customer reports, dealership timelines, and industry estimates for the 2024–2025 delivery cycle.

In the wake of ongoing semiconductor shortages — especially for mature-node chips (28 nm and 40 nm) — automakers continue to face production bottlenecks that delay deliveries of key vehicle models. This chart reveals the real-world impact, with delays ranging from one to seven months depending on the vehicle’s chip demands, production planning, and supply-chain preparedness.

While hybrids are particularly affected due to their reliance on multiple microcontrollers for both electric and combustion systems, EVs are not immune. Models like the Volkswagen ID.4, Audi Q4 e-tron, and Ford Mustang Mach-E show some of the longest reported delays, exacerbated by inventory misalignment and global chip allocation constraints. Notably, Toyota’s proactive buffer strategy around the Camry Hybrid appears to have nearly eliminated wait times — an exception in an otherwise strained market.

Behind the Scenes: Why Mature-Node Chips Matter

It’s tempting to assume the semiconductor crunch only affects cutting-edge AI chips. In reality:

1. Mature-Node Demand Surges: While 7 nm and 5 nm chips grab headlines, most cars need stable, battle-tested 28 nm or 40 nm manufacturing. ADAS SoCs, infotainment processors, and PMICs predominantly use these nodes — so ramping up next-gen fabs won’t solve automotive shortages.
2. OEM Reluctance to Swap Designs: Swapping from a 28 nm PMIC to a 16 nm variant demands retooling of electronic control units (ECUs), rewriting firmware, and revalidating entire systems — an expensive, months-long exercise. Few automakers choose that path mid-cycle.
3. Leverage & Forecasting Challenges: Tier 1 suppliers often can’t secure guaranteed wafer allocations until OEMs commit volume forecasts — yet OEMs lack confidence in market demand while switching to EVs and hybrids. This vicious cycle delays fab build decisions until 2027.

The Buyer’s Playbook: How to Avoid Getting Stuck

1. Treat Chips Like VINs

Insist on Written, Feature-Specific Delivery Windows: Ask your salesperson for explicit build-sheet annotations listing each semiconductor (e.g., “ADAS SoC,” “Infotainment Processor,” “Power-Management IC”). Don’t settle for “coming soon.”

Spot Red Flags: If the dealer hedges — “We think it’ll arrive by June” — walk away or switch to a different brand.

2. Inspect the Fine Print

Monitor Option Sheets Closely: A base Bronco Sport that once included blind-spot monitoring now tacks on $800 as a “deferred feature.” Ask for an itemised breakdown of “placeholder fees.”

Demand OTA Upgrade Commitments in Writing: If the manufacturer promises an over-the-air retrofit, get the timeline and conditions (e.g., battery level requirements, Wi-Fi connectivity) in the sales contract.

3. Choose Models with Proven Buffer Strategies

Toyota’s Integrated-Chip Approach: The 2025 Camry Hybrid and certain Lexus models may cost slightly more upfront, but they arrive complete. If having active ADAS day one is non-negotiable, prioritise brands with known supply-chain resilience.

Research Regional Differences: RAV4 Hybrid wait times varied drastically between Europe (60–70 days) and Japan (2–5 months). If a model’s backlog is shorter in one region, ask if it’s possible to expedite an import.

4. Consider Near-New Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) EVs/SUVs

Buying a 12–18-month-old model can mean previous owners absorbed the brunt of the chip shortage. Many CPO vehicles come with complete ADAS suites and digital clusters already installed — saving you from “placeholder” pain.

Look for automaker–backed CPO programs that include extended warranties on electronics; this often adds $1,000–$3,000 in residual value.

5. Time Your Purchase

End-of-Model-Year Sales: When a 2024 RAV4 lineup is discounted in late 2024 to clear inventory, dealers are more willing to absorb chip scarcity costs on older stock — meaning you might find a fully equipped unit at a reduced price.

Incentive Windows: If federal or state EV/hybrid incentives are about to expire, buying just before the cutoff nets you credits; buying just after might yield deeper dealer discounts to compensate for lost incentives.

What Automakers Are Doing (and What You Can Expect)

• Toyota: By building buffer stock and merging ADAS functions into single chips, Toyota models are often “feature complete.” Expect minimal retrofits.
• Ford: Working to diversify its supplier base, but until new capacity comes online, Bronco and F-150 buyers should prepare for “coming soon” stickers on dashboards.
• Honda and Hyundai: Both are experimenting with partnerships to secure mature-node allocations, but their small-volume high-performance trims (e.g., Honda’s CR-V Touring with digital gauges) may see extended delays.
• Tesla: Less reliant on external suppliers for many chips, thanks to in-house SoC design. Yet Tesla still sources some mature-node components from third parties, so expect occasional UI quirks or disabled conveniences on newly delivered refresh models.

Looking Ahead: When Will the Bottleneck Ease?

• Fab Expansions in 2027: TI, NXP, and STMicro plan new 28 nm/40 nm capacity — but automotive-grade qualification adds 12–18 months to the timeline, so mass volumes may not be available until late 2028.
• Second-Life Battery & Battery-Pack Consolidation: While not a direct chip remedy, these trends free up design teams to rethink car electronics around newer, more integrated platforms — potentially reducing dependence on multiple discrete chips.
• Modular, Software-Defined ADAS: A handful of Tier 1 suppliers are developing software-defined radio-based sensors that can be reprogrammed, sidestepping some hardware constraints. Early pilots may arrive in luxury EVs by 2026 — but mainstream adoption remains uncertain.

In short, the chip shortage won’t simply vanish next quarter. Expect incremental relief starting in 2027, but for the next year or two, automakers and buyers alike must navigate the “Placeholders Era.”

Final Takeaways: Don’t Get Stuck with an Incomplete SUV

• Ask Hard Questions: Demand feature-level clarity — nothing’s too small. When they say “it’ll arrive soon,” ask “exactly when, in writing?”
• Pick Brands with Proven Buffer Strategies: Toyota, some Lexus models, and certain CPO programs currently offer the smoothest paths to fully equipped vehicles.
• Consider Near-New CPO for Full-Feature Peace of Mind: If retrofits and placeholder fees give you anxiety, a 12- to 18-month-old certified model may be your best bet.
• Time Your Purchase Smartly: End-of-year clearances and incentive windows can tip the scales in your favor.

Until 28 nm/40 nm production truly catches up — likely not until 2028 — “Build-Your-Own” will remain a gamble. By staying vigilant, insisting on transparency, and choosing your brand wisely, you can avoid driving home with a cluster of empty promises — and blank dashes that never light up.

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References:

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NXP Semiconductors. (2025, February 1). NXP Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results. NXP Semiconductors. https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/media/press-releases/nxp-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-financial-results:PR-38594 stockinsights.ai

STMicroelectronics. (2025, February 13). STMicroelectronics Reports Fourth Quarter 2024 Results. STMicroelectronics. https://investors.st.com/static-files/7e2a6ff0-1c2d-4a16-8c25-0f9b65c6be2f investors.st.com

Texas Instruments Incorporated. (2025, January 23). Texas Instruments Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2024 Results. Texas Instruments. https://investor.ti.com/news-releases/news-release-details/texas-instruments-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results finance.yahoo.com

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Bosch, Infineon Technologies AG, & NXP Semiconductors. (2023, July 3). TSMC, Bosch, Infineon, and NXP Establish Joint Venture to Bring Mature-Node Chip Production to Germany. TSMC Press Release. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3049 nxp.com

Place, T. (2025). Subaru Forester, Outback and XV buyers face three-month waitlist amid global chip shortages. Chasing Cars. https://www.chasingcars.com.au/news/car-industry/subaru-forester-outback-and-xv-buyers-face-three-month-waitlist-amid-global-chip-shortages/ chasingcars.com.au

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Reuters. (2025, March 31). Dude, where’s my car? Toyota buyers face long waits amid hybrid boom. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/dude-wheres-my-car-toyota-buyers-face-long-waits-amid-hybrid-boom-2025-03-31/ reuters.com

CarEdge. (2023). Factory Ordering a Car? These Are Wait Times We’re Seeing in 2025. CarEdge. https://caredge.com/guides/factory-order-wait-times-2025 caredge.com

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