The Inconvenient Truths of the Russian Front: What Can Be Changed, and What Cannot?

As we grapple with the evolving dynamics of Russia’s aggression, there are certain harsh realities — or “facts of life” — that frame our immediate future. These constraints are not immutable, but they require careful manoeuvering and strategic recalibration to address. Here’s the current landscape:

1. Peace with Russia, in any meaningful sense, is highly unlikely in the short term.
2. A lasting peace with Russia is not just improbable — it has always been a mirage.
3. Hungary and Slovakia (and perhaps Romania, depending on election results) will continue to block Ukraine’s NATO membership for the foreseeable future.
4. Ukraine is now more aligned with EU values than some current member states, including Hungary and Slovakia.
5. Hungary and Slovakia will use every opportunity to obstruct Ukraine’s path to EU membership.
6. Any peace deal with Russia will be a temporary truce, not one of lasting peace.
7. Russia will continue to attack Ukraine and occupy its territory, regardless of diplomatic agreements.
8. Hungary and Slovakia’s reluctance to act makes invoking NATO’s Article 5 a near impossibility in any scenario involving Russian aggression.
9. The UN, EU, and NATO lack the mechanisms and political will to enforce a sustainable buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine.
10. Hungary and Slovakia’s presence in NATO weakens the alliance’s ability to respond decisively to Russian aggression.
11. New, smaller defense groupings outside of NATO — sub-NATO and sub-EU — will become necessary for credible collective security.
12. China, Iran, and North Korea’s axis with Russia is growing stronger, showing no signs of reversal.
13. European energy policies remain a contradiction, indirectly funding Russia’s war machine while supporting Ukraine’s defense. Ultimately the EU member states are funding the war machine that will attack the EU.

The Path Ahead

These are the boundaries within which we must navigate. If we are to secure a stable and resilient future, we must confront these rather self-evident truths head-on.

So, here’s the question: What, if anything, can we change — and how?

This isn’t just a thought experiment. It’s the strategic challenge of our time. Your insights are welcome.