The European Union at a Crossroads: The Urgent Need for a Grand Strategy
In an era of rapid geopolitical shifts, technological disruptions, and global challenges, the European Union finds itself at a critical juncture. While the EU has made significant strides in various policy areas, it still lacks a comprehensive grand strategy to guide its actions and secure its place on the world stage. This absence of a cohesive, long-term vision leaves the bloc vulnerable to external pressures and internal divisions. As we navigate an increasingly complex and uncertain global landscape, the case for developing an EU grand strategy has never been more compelling.
This concept also links into my earlier posts about the likely impact of the accession of the new EU Foreign Policy Chief, Kaja Kallas. I believe it highly likely she will want to do and say all of the things a grand strategy for the EU provides, to overcome all of the gaps the current state of play leaves, and to let our potential adversaries know we are both ready and resilient, and able to mobilise a 1 billion person community in response to attack. And perhaps nobody around her is able to articulate the need and the solution in this way. So, let’s articulate!
The Current State of EU Strategy
To understand the need for a grand strategy, we must first examine the EU’s existing strategic frameworks. While the bloc has produced several important documents and initiatives in recent years, these fall short of constituting a true grand strategy.
The Strategic Compass
In 2022, the EU adopted the Strategic Compass, a document setting out a common strategic vision for EU security and defence policy over the next 5–10 years. This initiative represents a step towards more coordinated strategic thinking, outlining plans to:
1. Increase defence spending and improve capability development
2. Develop strategic enablers and next-generation capabilities
3. Strengthen partnerships with NATO, UN, and other allies
4. Boost cooperation with partners sharing similar values
While the Strategic Compass is a valuable tool for aligning member states’ defence policies, it focuses primarily on military and security aspects, lacking the comprehensive scope of a true grand strategy.
EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence
Also in 2022, the EU introduced its first-ever Space Strategy for Security and Defence. This strategy aims to protect EU space assets, defend interests, deter hostile activities in space, and strengthen strategic autonomy. While innovative in its focus on the space domain, this strategy addresses only one aspect of the EU’s broader security needs. And it is not, as a grand strategy should, nestled in a more comprehensive all-of-society strategy.
Existing Defence Initiatives
The EU has implemented several defence-related programs, including:
1. Coordinated Annual Review on Defence
2. Permanent Structured Cooperation
3. European Defence Fund
These initiatives contribute to enhancing EU defence capabilities but are not integrated into a comprehensive strategic framework.
The Shortcomings of Current Approaches
While these efforts demonstrate progress towards more strategic thinking, they fall short of constituting a grand strategy for several reasons:
1. Lack of clear trade-offs and prioritisation: European strategic documents often present wishlists without addressing necessary trade-offs or clear prioritisation of objectives.
2. Absence of coherent resource allocation: There’s no clear plan for how to allocate diplomatic, military, economic, and technological resources to achieve core national interests.
3. Divergent views on strategic autonomy: There’s ongoing debate about whether Europe should pursue strategic autonomy or maintain strong reliance on US security guarantees.
4. Challenges in political unity: Achieving consensus for joint European decision-making on security and defence matters remains difficult.
5. Limited scope: Current strategies focus primarily on defence and security, neglecting other crucial aspects of grand strategy such as economic policy, technological development, and societal resilience.
The Case for an EU Grand Strategy
Given these shortcomings, the EU urgently needs to develop a comprehensive grand strategy. Here’s why:
1. Navigating a Multipolar World
The global order is shifting from a unipolar system dominated by the United States to a multipolar landscape where powers like China, Russia, and India play increasingly significant roles. A grand strategy would help the EU define its place in this new world order, balancing its relationships with traditional allies and emerging powers.
2. Addressing Transnational Challenges
Issues such as climate change, cybersecurity threats, and global pandemics transcend national borders and require coordinated, long-term responses. A grand strategy would provide a framework for tackling these challenges cohesively and proactively.
3. Enhancing Strategic Autonomy
As geopolitical tensions rise and traditional alliances evolve, the EU needs to define its path towards strategic autonomy. A grand strategy would outline how the bloc can reduce dependencies in critical areas while maintaining beneficial partnerships.
4. Aligning Economic and Security Policies
In today’s interconnected world, economic and security policies are increasingly intertwined. A grand strategy would ensure that the EU’s economic decisions, such as trade agreements and technology investments, align with its broader security and geopolitical objectives.
5. Mobilising Societal Resources
A comprehensive grand strategy would engage all sectors of society — including academia, industry, and civil society — in pursuing the EU’s long-term goals. This whole-of-society approach is crucial for addressing complex, multifaceted challenges.
6. Fostering Innovation and Technological Leadership
To remain competitive in the 21st century, the EU must prioritise innovation and technological development. A grand strategy would provide a roadmap for investing in critical technologies and fostering a culture of innovation across the bloc.
7. Strengthening Resilience
In an era of unpredictable shocks and disruptions, resilience is key. A grand strategy would outline how the EU can enhance its ability to withstand and recover from crises, whether economic, environmental, or security related.
8. Projecting European Values
A clear grand strategy would articulate how the EU intends to promote its core values — such as democracy, human rights, and the rule of law — on the global stage, balancing idealism with pragmatism.
Europe 2050: A Grand Strategy for Global Leadership and Resilience
To address the EU’s strategic needs, we propose a comprehensive grand strategy titled “Europe 2050: A Grand Strategy for Global Leadership and Resilience.” This strategy should encompass the following key elements:
1. Holistic Integration of Policy Domains
The strategy must seamlessly integrate various policy areas, including:
- Foreign policy and diplomacy
- Defence and security
- Economic policy and trade
- Technology and innovation
- Energy and climate policy
- Migration and demographic challenges
- Education and workforce development
By integrating these domains, the EU can ensure coherence across its actions and maximise the impact of its policies.
2. Long-term Vision with Clear Objectives
The strategy should:
- Articulate a clear vision for Europe’s role in the world by 2050
- Set specific, measurable objectives for each policy domain
- Outline intermediate milestones for 5, 10, and 20-year horizons
This long-term perspective will provide stability and direction, while the intermediate milestones will allow for regular assessment and adjustment.
3. Comprehensive Threat Assessment
A robust grand strategy must be based on a thorough understanding of the challenges facing the EU. This includes:
- Identifying and prioritising current and emerging threats to European security and prosperity
- Addressing both traditional military threats and non-traditional challenges like climate change, pandemics, and technological disruptions
This comprehensive threat assessment will inform resource allocation and policy priorities.
4. Strategic Autonomy Roadmap
The strategy should:
- Define what strategic autonomy means for Europe in various domains
- Outline steps to achieve greater independence in critical areas while maintaining beneficial partnerships
This roadmap will guide the EU’s efforts to reduce vulnerabilities and enhance its capacity for independent action.
5. Resource Allocation and Capability Development
A key component of the strategy should be:
- Providing a framework for allocating resources across different policy areas
- Identifying critical capabilities that need to be developed or strengthened
- Outlining plans for joint EU defence procurement and R&D initiatives
This will ensure that the EU’s resources are used efficiently and that critical capabilities are developed in a coordinated manner.
6. Economic and Industrial Strategy
The grand strategy must include:
- Defining key industries and technologies for European competitiveness
- Outlining plans for securing supply chains and reducing dependencies
- Proposing measures to boost innovation and entrepreneurship across the EU
This will help ensure the EU’s economic resilience and global competitiveness.
7. Partnerships and Alliances
The strategy should articulate:
- A strategy for engaging with key global players (US, China, Russia, India, etc.)
- Plans for strengthening existing alliances (e.g., NATO) and developing new partnerships
- Europe’s approach to multilateral institutions and global governance
This will position the EU effectively in the evolving global order.
8. Climate and Energy Security
Given the critical importance of climate change, the strategy must:
- Integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation into all aspects of the strategy
- Outline plans for energy transition and securing sustainable energy sources
This will address one of the most pressing global challenges while enhancing the EU’s energy security.
9. Digital and Technological Sovereignty
In the digital age, the strategy should:
- Define Europe’s approach to emerging technologies (AI, quantum computing, biotechnology, etc.)
- Outline measures to ensure European competitiveness in the digital realm
- Address cybersecurity and the protection of critical digital infrastructure
This will be crucial for maintaining the EU’s technological edge and protecting its digital assets.
10. Societal Resilience and Social Cohesion
The strategy must address internal challenges by:
- Proposing measures to strengthen European identity and values
- Addressing demographic challenges and migration policies
- Outlining plans for education and workforce development to meet future needs
This will help maintain the EU’s internal stability and social fabric.
11. Crisis Management and Rapid Response
To enhance the EU’s ability to handle crises, the strategy should:
- Develop frameworks for coordinated EU responses to various crisis scenarios
- Outline plans for enhancing civil protection capabilities
This will improve the EU’s resilience and its ability to protect its citizens.
12. Strategic Communication
Effective communication is crucial, so the strategy must:
- Develop a comprehensive plan for communicating the strategy to EU citizens, global partners, and potential adversaries
- Outline measures to counter disinformation and promote European narratives
This will help build support for the strategy and project the EU’s voice globally.
13. Adaptive Mechanisms
Given the rapidly changing global environment, the strategy should:
- Include provisions for regular strategy reviews and updates
- Establish mechanisms for incorporating emerging threats and opportunities
This will ensure that the strategy remains relevant and effective over time.
14. Implementation Roadmap
To move from strategy to action, the document should:
- Provide a clear timeline for implementation of various strategic initiatives
- Outline responsibilities for different EU institutions and member states
- Propose mechanisms for monitoring progress and ensuring accountability
This will facilitate the practical implementation of the strategy.
15. Funding and Resource Mobilisation
Finally, the strategy must address the crucial issue of resources by:
- Outlining plans for securing necessary funding for strategic initiatives
- Proposing innovative financing mechanisms and public-private partnerships
This will ensure that the strategy is backed by the necessary resources for implementation.
Challenges and the Path Forward
Developing and implementing such a comprehensive grand strategy will not be without challenges. The EU will need to navigate:
1. Diverse national interests among member states
2. Institutional complexity within the EU
3. Resource constraints and competing priorities
4. External pressures from global powers
5. Potential public scepticism or resistance
However, the potential benefits of a well-crafted grand strategy far outweigh these difficulties. To move forward, the EU should:
1. Establish a high-level strategic planning body to draft and refine the strategy
2. Conduct comprehensive consultations with member states, EU institutions, academia, industry, and civil society
3. Develop scenarios and wargames to test and refine the strategy
4. Align existing initiatives with the broader strategic framework
5. Invest in strategic communication to build support among EU citizens and global partners
6. Create clear implementation mechanisms across EU institutions and member states
7. Implement a system for regular review and adaptation of the strategy
Wrapping Up
The absence of a comprehensive grand strategy leaves the European Union vulnerable in an increasingly complex and challenging global environment. While the EU has made progress with initiatives like the Strategic Compass and various defence programs, these efforts fall short of providing the holistic, long-term vision needed to secure Europe’s future.
By developing a true grand strategy — “Europe 2050: A Grand Strategy for Global Leadership and Resilience” — the EU can enhance its strategic autonomy, address transnational challenges more effectively, align its various policy domains, and project its values on the world stage. Such a strategy would mobilise all sectors of European society, fostering innovation, resilience, and unity in the face of shared challenges.
The proposed grand strategy goes beyond traditional security concerns to address the full spectrum of challenges and opportunities facing the EU in the coming decades. It provides a comprehensive framework for guiding EU actions across all domains, ensuring coherence between different policy areas, and positioning Europe as a proactive global leader.
As global power dynamics shift and new challenges emerge, the time for the EU to develop its grand strategy is now. By doing so, the bloc can ensure that it is not merely reacting to events but actively shaping the world of tomorrow in line with European values and interests. The future of Europe — and its role in the world — depends on rising to this strategic challenge.
Implementing this grand strategy will require political will, resources, and sustained effort. However, the alternative — a Europe that is reactive, divided, and increasingly marginalised on the global stage — is far less appealing. With a clear vision, coherent strategy, and united effort, the European Union can secure its place as a leading force in shaping the 21st century.
