Silencing Russian Artillery

The Russian Petrostate Collapse (3/3)

Image Source: New York Times

The last in my 3-part series about the oil dimensions of Russia’s demise, in this article I will outline to you the military/defence impact thresholds for oil pricing. You will recall in Part 2, I outlined the broader economic impact thresholds.

Russia’s military machine doesn’t run on patriotism. It runs on petrodollars. Look at this chart and understand what you’re seeing: the death spiral of an empire, measured in dollars per barrel. When Urals crude crossed below $50 in April 2025, the Kremlin didn’t just lose money. Rather it lost the mathematical possibility of sustaining its war.

Oil Price Thresholds and Russia’s Military Capability Degradation

The Russian Ministry of Finance can lie to its people, but it can’t lie to arithmetic. Each coloured band on this chart marks a threshold where military capability bleeds out, like a soldier with a severed artery.

• $69+ (Green Zone): Full Combat Power
  When Urals traded above $69 per barrel, Russia could fund everything-next-generation S-500 air defence systems, hypersonic weapons programs, Arctic bases, naval shipbuilding, and the meat-grinder campaign in Ukraine. They could replenish equipment, train new…