Guardians of the North: Sweden’s New Role in NATO’s Defence Strategy
Sweden’s recent accession to NATO marks a fascinating and significant moment in the nation’s defence strategy, necessitating a paradigm shift from a historically entrenched “Total Defence” posture to an active and forward-operating NATO member responsible for the security of the northern regions, the Baltic Sea, and Nordic borders. As Sweden integrates into NATO’s strategic framework, it is imperative to understand the nuanced strategic imperatives that will shape its operating environment and the corresponding shifts in force posture required to fulfill its new responsibilities effectively.
Historical Context and Strategic Realignment
For decades, Sweden has maintained a total defence strategy, characterised by a comprehensive approach involving both military and civilian sectors to ensure national resilience against external threats. This doctrine, deeply rooted in Sweden’s policy of neutrality and non-alignment during the Cold War, focused on deterrence through a robust, self-reliant defence capability. However, the evolving geopolitical landscape in Europe, marked by Russia’s assertive actions and growing instability in the Baltic region, has necessitated a strategic realignment.
Sweden’s total defence posture is deeply rooted in a national ethos of resilience and unyielding determination. This extraordinary framework, encompassing both military and civilian sectors, is designed to ensure that every segment of society contributes to the defence of the nation. A defining feature of Sweden’s total defence is the unwavering principle captured by the phrase “we will never surrender.” This tenet is embedded in the very fabric of Swedish defence strategy. For instance, the standing instruction regarding “crisis radios” — devices distributed to the population for use in emergencies — is explicit: any broadcast calling for surrender is unequivocally identified as enemy propaganda, specifically from Russia. This directive underscores a collective resolve that, in the face of invasion or occupation, every Swedish citizen is expected to resist and contribute to the defence effort. It is an “all in” approach, reflecting a national culture that prioritises freedom, sovereignty, and the duty to defend against any adversary, no matter the odds. And as a Swede, I can tell you it is palpable; part of the Swedish DNA as much as it is a strategy.
The decision for Sweden to join NATO was not made whimsically. This historic move was catalysed by a dramatic change in public opinion, driven almost exclusively in response to Russia’s savage invasion of Ukraine. Historically, Swedish support for NATO membership was tepid, reflecting a preference for neutrality and self-reliance. However, the savagery displayed by Russia in Ukraine served as a stark reminder of the threat posed by Sweden’s centuries-old adversary. For centuries, Sweden has stood out as a remarkable adversary for Russia, demonstrating time and again the Russian bear can be felled by a relative minnow.
The invasion underscored the urgent need for collective security, leading to a substantial shift in demographic support for joining the alliance. With the memory of past conflicts and the present threat of Russian expansionism, Swedish citizens and policymakers alike recognised — and support swelled for — the strategic necessity of NATO membership, aligning with a broader consensus to ensure national security through collective defence mechanisms. It is also not a small consideration that Sweden’s military and arms industry, precisely because of the “we need to it alone and tough it out” stance, are inordinately strong, independent, and capable.
This quite enormous transition highlights Sweden’s pragmatic approach to adapting its defence posture in response to evolving geopolitical realities and popular sentiment.
Strategic Imperatives in the New Operating Environment
1. Enhanced Collective Defence and Deterrence
As a NATO member, Sweden is now part of a collective defence framework underpinned by Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which stipulates that an armed attack against one or more members is considered an attack against all. This collective security guarantee necessitates that Sweden’s defence posture aligns with NATO’s strategic objectives of deterrence and defence against potential aggressors, particularly in the context of the growing Russian threat in the Baltic region.
2. Forward Presence and Rapid Deployment
Sweden’s geographic location is strategically significant for NATO’s northern flank. The Baltic Sea, the Arctic region, and the Nordic borders are critical areas where NATO seeks to project power and maintain stability. Sweden’s accession means an increased emphasis on forward presence and the capability for rapid deployment to counter any threats in these regions.
This strategic imperative involves transitioning from a defensive posture to an expeditionary approach, where Swedish forces are not only prepared to defend the homeland but also to operate forward in coordination with NATO allies. This necessitates investments in rapid deployment capabilities, including enhanced mobility, logistics, and interoperability with NATO forces.
3. Interoperability and Integration with NATO Forces
To fulfill its new role effectively, Sweden must ensure that its military forces are fully interoperable with NATO forces. This includes adopting NATO standards for equipment, communication, and operational procedures. The integration into NATO’s command and control structures is essential to facilitate seamless coordination during joint operations and exercises.
Interoperability extends beyond military hardware and protocols; it also encompasses intelligence sharing and joint planning. Sweden’s ability to contribute to NATO’s collective defence efforts hinges on the integration of its intelligence capabilities — Sweden’s Russia capability is extraordinary in northern Europe — with those of NATO, ensuring timely and accurate information flow to support decision-making processes.
Shifts in Force Posture
1. Modernisation and Capability Enhancement
Sweden must undertake a comprehensive modernisation of its armed forces to meet NATO’s operational standards. This includes upgrading existing platforms, acquiring new capabilities, and ensuring the forces are equipped with advanced technologies to operate in a high-threat environment. Key areas of focus should include air defence, anti-submarine warfare, cyber defence, and electronic warfare.
For Sweden, and its advanced arms industry envied the world over for the quality, these are all quite easily done. Sweden boasts a range of advanced military technologies and systems developed by its leading defence companies that add extraordinary capability to NATO’s northern flank. For example, SAAB, a prominent player in the global defence market, produces cutting-edge fighter jets like the JAS 39 Gripen, renowned for their agility, advanced avionics, and multi-role capabilities. Additionally, SAAB’s radar and missile systems provide robust air defence solutions, essential for protecting Swedish airspace and supporting NATO operations.
I single out SAAB because they impress me consistently. SAAB’s brilliant torpedo technology, such as the The Torpedo 62, also known as Torped 2000, is a heavyweight torpedo system for surface and underwater targets. It has a range of 40 km at a speed of 40 knots (74 km/h). SAAB’s Torpedo 47 as another example, is an advanced torpedo designed especially for shallow, brackish waters and difficult topography like the Baltic Sea.
Additionally, SAAB is such a capable addition to NATO, they have developed the RBS 15 Mk3, a surface-to-surface missile system with an impressive range of over 200 kilometres. However, Sweden’s RBS 15 Mk4 (a newer variant) Mk4 “Gungnir” has “an impressive range of over 300 km of “sea-skimming flight”, not to mention it can be launched from air, sea, and land platforms; you can fire it from a truck.
The Baltic Sea is relatively small compared to oceans, with an average width of about 200–300 kilometres in many areas. The Gungnir can cover significant portions of the Baltic Sea, enabling Sweden to monitor and control crucial maritime areas and chokepoints effectively. Read: Kaliningrad and St Petersburg. From the crucial island of Gotland, in the middle of the Baltic, Sweden can indeed keep the Russian fleets in port, which is why Putin wants Gotland as the first thing he does on the Baltic front.
As to anti-submarine warfare, Sweden’s Gotland-class submarines are among the most advanced and stealthy in the world. These submarines are equipped with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, allowing them to operate quietly and undetected — and submerged for weeks, not days — for extended periods.
Additionally, BAE Systems also produces the Archer Artillery System, an advanced self-propelled gun capable of rapid deployment and high-precision targeting. The Archer system boasts an impressive rate of fire, capable of delivering 21 rounds in less than 3.5 minutes, significantly enhancing the Swedish Army’s artillery capabilities.
Companies like BAE Systems Hägglunds contribute to Sweden’s military prowess with advanced armoured vehicles such as the CV90, which offers superior protection, mobility, and firepower. These vehicles are integral to enhancing the Swedish Army’s operational capabilities and interoperability with NATO ground forces.
All of this to say, the addition of Swedish defence industry to NATO adds incredible firepower and warfighting capability.
2. Increased Defence Spending and Resource Allocation
Joining NATO represents a profound shift in Sweden’s security posture, entailing a commitment to meet the alliance’s defence spending targets, typically around 2% of GDP. For Sweden, this means a significant increase in defence expenditure to support the necessary capability enhancements and operational readiness.
Increasing Defence Spending to 2% of GDP
Sweden is already on track to reach NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target by 2024. In the 2024 budget bill, the Swedish government has proposed increasing defence appropriations by over 28%, bringing the total to SEK 119 billion ($10.8 billion) — a doubling of the defence budget since 2020.This substantial investment is critical not only for force modernisation but also for sustaining long-term readiness and resilience. As the security environment in Europe deteriorates, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there are indications that Sweden may even need to exceed the 2% target to adequately address the heightened threat.
Prioritising Strategic Capabilities
Effective resource allocation will be essential as Sweden balances the demands of national defence and its NATO commitments. The search results suggest Sweden is prioritising investments in areas that offer strategic advantages, such as:
- Advanced surveillance systems and signals intelligence capabilities
- Modernisation of maritime assets, including new surface combat vessels
- Enhancing air defence, including the acquisition of additional air-to-air and cruise missiles
- Expanding the army with additional mechanised brigades and an infantry brigade
- Bolstering territorial defence with new military units and increased conscription
These targeted investments will not only strengthen Sweden’s own defence posture but also enhance its ability to contribute meaningfully to NATO’s collective defence efforts, particularly in the Baltic and Nordic regions.
Balancing National and Alliance Priorities
As Sweden transitions to its new role within NATO, it will need to carefully balance the demands of national defence with its commitments to the alliance. This may require difficult trade-offs and prioritisation, as the country seeks to modernise its forces, improve readiness, and enhance interoperability with NATO partners. Effective coordination and integration with NATO’s command and control structures, as well as joint training and exercises, will be crucial to ensure Sweden’s military capabilities are seamlessly integrated into the alliance’s deterrence and defence posture. Maintaining a high degree of readiness and mobility will be essential for Sweden to rapidly deploy and support NATO operations in the region. Overall, Sweden’s increased defence spending and strategic capability investments represent a significant shift in the country’s security posture. By aligning its military modernisation efforts with NATO’s priorities, Sweden can bolster the alliance’s collective defence while also strengthening its own national security in the face of the evolving threat landscape.
3. Strengthening Maritime and Air Power
Given the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region, Sweden must focus on strengthening its maritime and air power. The Swedish Navy should enhance its capabilities for anti-submarine warfare, mine countermeasures, and maritime patrols. This involves acquiring modern naval vessels equipped with advanced sensors and weapon systems to ensure dominance in the maritime domain. The Visby class Corvette is central to this maritime capability. The Visby-class corvette is designed with a strong emphasis on stealth, using an integrated approach to signature reduction across radar, infrared, acoustic, and magnetic signatures. The Visby-class leads the world in naval stealth, benefiting from over 100 years of experience in R&D for naval stealth. The all-composite carbon-fibre hull and superstructure contribute to the Visby’s stealthy design. It can fire the exceptional torpedoes and missiles mentioned above, and is capable of roles like anti-surface warfare, anti-submarine warfare, mine countermeasures, and patrol missions. Its combination of stealth, speed, and versatility make it a formidable “super sneaky” corvette.
Similarly, the Swedish Air Force is renowned for its exceptional capabilities and technological prowess, making it a formidable force within the Nordic region and beyond. At the heart of its air power are the advanced Saab JAS 39 Gripen multirole fighter jets, which form the backbone of Sweden’s combat aircraft fleet. With over 99 Gripen C/D and E models in service, the Swedish Air Force boasts a highly capable and versatile air combat platform. Complementing the Gripen fleet are other specialised assets such as the Gulfstream IV SRA-4 signals intelligence aircraft and the Saab 340-based Argus (again with the SAAB) airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platforms. These provide the Swedish Air Force with robust intelligence, surveillance, and air defence coordination capabilities. In comparison, the UK’s Royal Air Force, while larger in overall size, fields a smaller fleet of 159 combat aircraft, primarily Typhoons and F-35Bs.
Furthermore, the Swedish Air Force’s emphasis on dispersed operations and the use of unconventional airfields, including public roads, enhances its ability to survive and operate effectively in the face of potential adversarial threats. This adaptability, combined with the advanced features of the Gripen, such as the use of precision-guided munitions like the Paveway II and GBU-39 bombs, underscores the Swedish Air Force’s formidable combat capabilities. As Sweden transitions to its new role within NATO, its air power will play a crucial part in strengthening the alliance’s deterrence and defence posture, particularly in the Nordic and Baltic regions. The integration of Sweden’s air assets and operational expertise will undoubtedly contribute to NATO’s overall air superiority and the ability to effectively police the northern flank. Investing more in multi-role fighter aircraft, long-range precision strike capabilities, and integrated air defence systems will be crucial to maintaining air dominance and supporting NATO operations in the region.
4. Developing Expeditionary Capabilities
Transitioning from a total defence posture to a forward-operating role requires the development of expeditionary capabilities. This involves creating highly mobile and rapidly deployable forces capable of operating in diverse and challenging environments. Enhancing the readiness and mobility of ground forces, including mechanised and special operations units, will enable Sweden to contribute effectively to NATO’s rapid response initiatives. The forward deployment of troops, like the Southern Skåne Regiment (P 7) deploying to Latvia in 2025, is a crucial step to the forward dumping that will be needed for extended logistics chains; something new to Sweden’s defence posture.
I include Gotland in “expeditionary”; it is far offshore. The strategic importance and vulnerability to attack of Gotland cannot be overstated. Gotland is located about 60 miles (96 km) from the Swedish mainland. It is about 130 km from the Baltic states, and about 300 km from Kaliningrad. Whomever controls Gotland controls the Baltic. Russia would apply overwhelming force there, as it could then govern the Baltic from this vital island and open the sea to its fleet in Kaliningrad. Are we looking at fortress Gotland? Probably. Anything short of extraordinary reinforcement and protective measures will see this island lost early and Baltic dominance handed to Russia.
Sweden should focus on improving its logistical infrastructure to support expeditionary operations. This includes establishing forward operating bases, enhancing strategic airlift capabilities (SAC), and ensuring robust supply chains to sustain prolonged deployments. On SAC, the total defence posture has meant Sweden has little in the way of dedicated strategic airlift assets. Until now, Sweden has secured access to strategic airlift capabilities through its membership in the multinational SAC program, which allows it to leverage the shared C-17 fleet for its defence and humanitarian requirements. But this is far from being enough in our changed circumstances.
I cannot be more adamant about Swede’s SAC needs. If Sweden goes to war with Russia, we will be fighting in Finland and the Baltics, not at home. So in parallel to participating in, and seeking a larger allocation of hours, the SAC program, Sweden should acquire its own dedicated strategic airlift aircraft, such as the C-17 or A400M. This would give Sweden more organic airlift capacity to rapidly deploy forces and materiel, complementing the SAC fleet. Acquiring compatible aircraft with NATO members would enhance interoperability.
Sweden further needs to enhance its airlift infrastructure, including expanding and hardening runways to accommodate large strategic airlifters. Developing more dispersed operating locations and austere airfields would increase the resilience and flexibility of Sweden’s airlift operations. Interoperability with NATO allies in areas like air traffic management and airfield operations will surely be under way and should be prioritised.
Sweden must fully integrate strategic airlift into its national defence planning and exercises. This includes developing contingency plans for rapidly deploying forces to Finland and the Baltics, and training personnel in airlift operations. Conducting joint exercises with NATO allies to rehearse rapid deployment scenarios is critical.
Lastly, Sweden should explore leveraging commercial airlift capabilities to augment military strategic airlift when required. Establishing pre-negotiated contracts with commercial air cargo carriers could provide surge capacity for rapid deployment.
By pursuing these initiatives, Sweden can significantly enhance its strategic airlift capabilities to support NATO operations in Finland and the Baltics. Any warfighting will be forward, not at home (except for Gotland). Increasing its SAC participation, acquiring compatible aircraft, improving infrastructure, and integrating airlift into defence planning will be key to projecting power and rapidly reinforcing allies in the region.
Operational Implications and Future Challenges
1. Balancing National Defence and NATO Commitments
One of the key challenges for Sweden will be balancing its national defence priorities with NATO commitments. While collective defence is a cornerstone of NATO membership, Sweden must ensure that its national defence capabilities remain robust and resilient. This requires a careful balancing act to allocate resources effectively and maintain a strong national defence posture while contributing to NATO’s strategic objectives.
2. Adapting to Hybrid Warfare and Emerging Threats
The contemporary security environment is characterised by the proliferation of hybrid warfare tactics and emerging threats, including cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, and unconventional warfare. Sweden must adapt to these evolving challenges by enhancing its cyber defence capabilities, improving resilience against information warfare, and developing strategies to counter hybrid threats.
NATO’s emphasis on resilience and comprehensive defence aligns with Sweden’s total defence concept, providing a framework for addressing these complex challenges. By integrating national and collective defence efforts, Sweden can enhance its ability to respond to hybrid threats and contribute to NATO’s overall resilience.
3. Fostering Regional Security Cooperation
Sweden’s NATO membership presents an opportunity to strengthen regional security cooperation with Nordic and Baltic partners. Enhanced collaboration with Finland, Norway, Denmark, and the Baltic States will be crucial for addressing common security challenges in the region. Joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated defence planning will enhance regional stability and collective defence capabilities.
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Finally wrapping this up, Sweden’s accession to NATO represents a strategic milestone with profound implications for its defence posture and operating environment. As the strongest military force northern Europe, the transition from a total defence posture to an active NATO member responsible for the security of the northern regions, the Baltic Sea, and Nordic borders necessitates significant shifts in force posture, capability enhancement, and strategic alignment with NATO’s objectives.
The modernisation of Sweden’s armed forces will be pivotal. With advanced technology from companies like SAAB, including cutting-edge fighter jets such as the JAS 39 Gripen, stealthy Gotland-class submarines, and the RBS 15 Mk4 missile system with a range of over 300 kilometres, Sweden is well-equipped to enhance its defence capabilities. Moreover, systems like the Archer Artillery and the advanced Torpedo 47 underscore Sweden’s robust military technology, contributing significantly to NATO’s collective strength.
Increasing defence spending to meet NATO’s 2% GDP target will support these enhancements, ensuring sustained readiness and resilience. By prioritising investments in strategic capabilities such as advanced surveillance, modernised naval assets, and expanded ground forces, Sweden can effectively balance national defence priorities with NATO commitments.
Strengthening maritime and air power is crucial given the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea and the Arctic region. The Visby-class corvettes, renowned for their stealth and versatility, and the Swedish Air Force’s adaptable and technologically advanced Gripen fighters, will play key roles in maintaining air and sea dominance. But their number must increase.
Developing expeditionary capabilities is essential for Sweden’s forward-operating role within NATO. Enhancing logistical infrastructure, greatly enhanced SAC, and forward operating bases will enable Sweden to rapidly deploy forces and support NATO operations in the Nordic and Baltic regions. The strategic importance of Gotland cannot be overstated; its defence is vital for controlling the Baltic.
Operationally, Sweden must balance national defence with NATO commitments, adapt to hybrid warfare, and foster regional security cooperation. Integrating cyber defence and countering hybrid threats through NATO’s comprehensive defence framework will enhance resilience. Collaboration with Nordic and Baltic partners through joint exercises and coordinated defence planning will strengthen regional stability.
By embracing these strategic imperatives and investing in modernisation, interoperability, and expeditionary capabilities, Sweden can effectively contribute to NATO’s collective defence and enhance regional stability. The journey ahead will be challenging, but with a clear strategic vision and commitment to collective security, we will navigate this transformative period and emerge as a pivotal player in the defence of Europe’s northern flank.
