Geopolitical Chess and Electric Dreams: How China’s EV Ambitions Clash with European Values
In a curious and ill-timed visit, President Xi Jinping arrives in Europe to dissuade the EU from imposing anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese EVs. This act reflects a profound dissonance on China’s part from the harsh geopolitical realities shaped/inflicted by China’s own manoeuvres. While China seeks economic favours from the EU, it simultaneously supports Russia in Ukraine and maintains an aggressive stance in Taiwan and the South China Sea. This duality not only undermines the ethical grounds of trade but starkly contradicts the values and security interests of the EU.
By way of background, China provides its EV industry billions in subsidies to be able to undercut others in markets like the EU. One of the only trading partners yet to introduce tariffs to offset this uncompetitive advantage, the EU will implement these tariffs. Xi’s job is to talk us out of that.
Xi’s tour to France and Hungary, the latter’s position diametrically opposed to EU policies, is unlikely to yield the desired softening of the EU’s stance. The anti-tariff subsidies are not in the unanimous Council policy domains so the EU’s worst outlier, Hungary, cannot block them.
The curious thing this is this olive-branch visit is clearly cynical. It comes just when China is relentlessly pushing in ways that directly challenge European stability and prosperity. Notably, in France, President Macron’s leadership is signal, increasing support for Ukraine while China increases support for Russia.
The message should be clear to Xi: Europe’s economic engagements cannot be divorced from the broader spectrum of security issues in which China is seriously at odds with Europe’s interests. And a trade war, at a time when the EU members are already distancing themselves from trade dependence on China (again a function of China quite literally taking up arms against EU interests), is not going to be the sure win Xi needs.
The trade partnership narrative that Xi hopes to sell is fundamentally flawed if it does not address the underlying geopolitical strife. The EU is increasingly sceptical of China’s dualistic approach. It is a glaring contradiction, a gambit that underestimates the resolve of a continent that has grown wary of external manipulation.
The stakes are high, and the path for Xi is paved with landmines only de-mined with geopolitical concessions from China. Xi will have to weigh the future of its EV industry, worth so many billions to China, in an ailing economy, with its aggressive behaviour on Taiwan, Ukraine, and the South China Sea. Without significant geopolitical “gives,” such as eliminating arms support for Russia and easing aggression in East Asia, China’s economic propositions are nothing more than whispers against the roaring winds of global tensions. Simply put, economic agreements cannot be insulated from geopolitical dynamics. Xi is knocking at a door that is not going to be opened to someone wielding a hammer.
