Game Theory’s Fatal Flaw in the Taiwan Strait

When rational actors choose mutual destruction.

Image Source: NPR

Let me help you get your head around the likely actions and outcomes of what is happening in the Taiwan Strait right now. And I do this so that we have a relatively objective analysis and not hawks and doves facing off with not much to go on. Let me, though, start with telling you something unsettling: wars aren’t fought with bullets first. They’re fought with games — psychological gambits where leaders bluff, posture, and sacrifice pawns to avoid checkmate. Right now, over 100 Chinese warships are encircling Taiwan like wolves tightening around a wounded stag. But this isn’t just a show of force. It’s a lesson in coercion, a lethal dance of strategy where every move is calculated to fracture resolve.

You’ve heard the platitudes: “China wants reunification,” “Taiwan defends democracy.” Strip that away. What’s unfolding is a primal contest of dominance, where three players — Beijing, Taipei, Washington — are locked in a high-stakes game with existential stakes. Let’s use game theory to dissect it.

The Players & Their Moves

1. China’s Dominant Strategy: The Grey Zone Blockade Beijing isn’t stupid. A full-scale invasion risks global condemnation and U.S. intervention. So they’re playing a subtler…